Pete Wegier, Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Canada, will give a presentation via Zoom in this week’s Social, Economic, and Decision Psychology research seminar (Thursday 25 November, 15:00-16:00).

ARISE—Aiding Risk Information learning through Simulated Experience

 Conditional probabilities—the likelihood that one event will occur given that another event has already occurred—are common in medical decision making. “What’s the probability I have a disease given a screening test returned a positive result? 100%? 50%? 1%?” Properly understanding conditional probabilities is vital to informed medical decision making. Research has shown that people learn the probabilities in a choice differently if the decision is presented from description versus from experience. We will present a series of studies using the ARISE—Aiding Risk Information learning through Simulated Experience—paradigm, a visual method for simulating large numbers of results as a way for a decision maker to learn probably from experience.